> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.beaconrevenue.io/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# Forecast confidence — can my forecasts be trusted enough for Beacon to act on them by itself?
> How Forecast confidence reads the six parts every revenue forecast depends on, what it produces today, what holds the score back, what you see on its page, what it needs, which modules depend on it, and what it does not calculate yet.
**Forecast confidence** answers one question: *Can my forecasts be trusted enough for Beacon to act on them by itself — and if not, what has to change?* It checks six parts that every revenue forecast depends on — data quality, pipeline stability, renewal stability, expansion visibility, intent strength and financial integrity — and is built to give one score from 0 to 100 that sets what Beacon may do by itself with any forecast. It belongs to the Shared foundation — see [Modules](/modules/overview).
This page describes the module as it runs today. The readings behind each of the six parts — read from the modules that already run for you — and what is holding the score back are live. **The score, the score for each part and the level it sets — what Beacon may do by itself — are designed and not calculated yet**, and so are the alerts and the confidence statement for the board. How each reading becomes a part score is not yet written down. Until there is a score, a person confirms every action on a forecast. The rules the live page follows are set out [below](#what-the-page-shows-today).
## What it does
A forecast that looks precise can rest on stale data, a pipeline behaving oddly, renewals going wrong or billing that does not add up. Forecast confidence is built to check all of that every morning, give one score from 0 to 100, and use the score to decide how much Beacon may do by itself — act, draft for a person, only suggest, or only watch. The score travels with every forecast that goes to the board. It says how far to trust a forecast; it never changes one.
Today it does the part that needs no score. Each time its page opens, it:
* **Reads what the other modules have already worked out** for each of the six parts — Data integrity's morning checks, Pipeline velocity's latest score, the open deals Deal likelihood read, Customer fit's completeness, Usage intelligence's usage, Churn risk's subscriptions and renewal dates, Customer lifecycle, Expansion readiness, your revenue from billing and the signals noticed in the last 30 days.
* **Shows each part's readings** and what it is still missing.
* **Says what is holding the score back** — the steps you can take now, each with a button to where it is done, and the steps that are Beacon's.
* **Saves your setup answers.**
Beacon reads your tools through its other modules. It never writes into them, and it never changes a forecast.
## What it produces
Its headline is two figures. Neither is calculated yet.
| KPI | What it measures | Today |
| - | - | - |
| [**Forecast confidence**](/forecast-confidence) | How far your revenue forecasts can be trusted today, from 0 to 100, with its band: High, Medium-High, Medium, Medium-Low, Low or Critical | Not calculated yet — how each reading becomes a part score is not written down |
| [**What Beacon may do by itself**](/forecast-confidence#what-it-governs) | The level the score sets: acts by itself at 80 and over, drafts for a person at 60 to 79, only suggests at 40 to 59, only watches under 40 | Not calculated yet — until there is a score, a person confirms every action on a forecast |
Both are described in the [Forecast confidence](/forecast-confidence) article. Neither is served through the [Data API](/api-reference) yet.
Behind them it also produces:
| What | What it tells you | Today |
| - | - | - |
| **The six parts' readings** | For each part, what the modules behind it read for you today, and what is still missing | Shown, read from the other modules each time the page opens |
| **What's holding the score back** | The steps you can take now — such as fixing an open data problem, answering a setup question or connecting your accounting tool — and the steps that are Beacon's | Shown |
| **Enterprise revenue** | What your Enterprise customers pay a month, beside your total, from billing — read instead of asked | Shown, as the two figures |
| **The score for each part** | Each of the six parts from 0 to 100 | Not calculated yet |
| **Forecast confidence over time** | The score for the last 90 days, and week by week for four quarters | Not calculated yet — starts with the first score |
| **The log** | Every run kept for good: the score, the six parts, the level, the warning signs and what was done | In place and empty |
| **Confidence statement for the board** | The score, the level and the six parts attached to each forecast that goes to the board | Not calculated yet |
| **Alerts** | Seven rules — a fall of 5 points in a day, a level change, a part under 40, under 60 for two days, recovered, a part under its review line, and a big fall | Described, none sent |
## How it is worked out
### What the page shows today
The page works nothing out. It shows figures other modules have already written, and the same data always gives the same page.
* **Read when the page opens.** Each reading is the latest one the module behind it has stored. The page says when the readings were taken.
* **Nothing is added, divided or rounded.** The only changes are the ones every Beacon page makes: Customer fit's completeness is shown as a whole percent, and money is shortened, such as \$2.83M. Enterprise revenue is shown as two figures — Enterprise and the total — not as a share, because a share would be a division no module has made.
* **A part with readings** reads *Readings in · not scored*. A part whose module has not run yet reads *Waits for its module*. Intent strength reads *Partial* without a marketing tool, and financial integrity reads *Counts 50 until accounting* until your accounting tool is connected.
* **Data quality uses Data integrity's own readings**, so the two pages never disagree.
* **What's holding the score back** is a fixed list. Each line appears only while the fact behind it is still missing, and disappears when it is in. Yours: tell Beacon where your renewal dates are (Churn risk's setup), fix the open data problems that need you (Data integrity), answer one setup question, and connect your accounting tool. Beacon's: work out the data trust figure, finish how each reading is scored, read your renewal dates in, and finish the Churn risk, Deal health and Deal likelihood scores. The page never says how much a step would lift the score, because no such figure exists yet.
* **The page reads** *Not measured yet* until your CRM and billing are connected, *Coming* if its readings cannot be had, and *Running with gaps* while it has readings and no score. It reads *Live* only once a score has been worked out.
### How the score will be worked out — designed, not calculated
The score is the one figure in Beacon that is reasoned rather than calculated: Beacon's reasoning layer combines the six parts, and the parts come from the modules' own figures. Every score is kept with its inputs, so it can be checked later.
| Part | Weight | What it checks | Protects |
| - | - | - | - |
| **Data quality** | 25% | Whether the data every forecast runs on is complete, fresh and consistent. Data integrity's trust figure is 60% of this part | Every forecast |
| **Pipeline stability** | 25% | Speed through the stages, how evenly deals are spread, whether deal chances are drifting, and deal health | Sales forecast |
| **Renewal stability** | 25% | Revenue at risk of leaving, usage, where customers are in their life with you, and how sure the renewal forecast is | Customer revenue forecast |
| **Expansion visibility** | 10% | Customers ready to grow, and expansion pipeline against plan | Customer revenue forecast |
| **Intent strength** | 5% | Buying interest against its usual level, and marketing's demand forecast | Sales forecast, early pipeline |
| **Financial integrity** | 10% | Billing completeness, unusual revenue moves, payment delays, margin, and CRM against billing | Revenue forecast to the board |
**From readings to a score.** Each reading becomes a score from 0 to 100 and the readings in a part are combined. Each part is multiplied by its weight and added up. A part whose modules are not on yet counts a neutral **50**, so the score is not dragged down before everything is connected — and the board statement says which parts were counted that way.
**What the score allows.**
| Score | What Beacon may do by itself |
| - | - |
| **80 and over** | Acts by itself — commits forecasts and sends alerts without waiting, inside each module's limits |
| **60 to 79** | Drafts — forecast commits and alerts wait for a person |
| **40 to 59** | Suggestions only — leadership reviews before any forecast commit or renewal investment |
| **Under 40** | Watches only — keeps calculating, takes no action. Fixed; nobody can override it |
The level rises at most one step every 4 hours, so after a fall Beacon waits before acting by itself again.
**Bands.** *High* 80 to 100 · *Medium-High* 70 to 79 · *Medium* 60 to 69 · *Medium-Low* 50 to 59 · *Low* 40 to 49 · *Critical* under 40.
**How high it can go.** While only the Shared foundation runs, the highest possible score is 62.5. With Sales it is 75; with Customer and marketing modules, 95; with Finance, 100.
**Warning signs.** Pipeline more than 25% slower than usual · stages too bunched · deal chances more than 12% from usual · over 20% of renewing revenue at high risk · usage down more than 30% in your top quarter of customers · unusual revenue moves over 3% of the quarter's run-rate.
**Fixed settings.** The levels at 80, 60 and 40 change only with the account owner's approval, and Beacon never adjusts them. The six weights are the CFO's: a change of 3 points or less may go through, at most once every 60 days. Pipeline stability weighs ×1.1 for Enterprise when Enterprise is over 40% of revenue; renewal stability weighs ×1.1 when renewals are over a quarter of yearly revenue. Beacon never changes its own thresholds.
**When it runs.** Every morning at 07:00 UTC, after the night's runs of the modules it reads, and again whenever a part moves 3 points. Every run is kept for good and never edited. It holds no money value; it scores trust.
None of this is calculated today. How each reading turns into a part score is not yet written down, Data integrity's trust figure is not worked out, and the Churn risk, Deal health and Deal likelihood scores do not exist yet. Until then the page shows the real readings and says **Not yet calculated** for the score.
## What you see on its page
In Beacon, open **The Brain** and choose **Forecast confidence**, under *What it projects*. The banner reads **Not yet** for the score, how many of the six parts are scored (none yet) and which have readings, and that a person confirms every action on a forecast until there is a score. The page has six tabs:
* **Overview** — the six parts, each with its weight, the forecast it protects, today's readings and what is missing; what's holding the score back; the last 90 days, waiting for the first score; what it means for each forecast; who it is for; its data sources; what it reads from and feeds; and where it shows up — Beacon, Slack, Reports & cadences and Claude.
* **Dashboard** — the module's five views: the score now and over 90 days, the six parts, what Beacon may do by itself for each group of forecasts and alerts (today, a person confirms everything), the score week by week, and the confidence statement for the board. The parts table shows today's state; the rest say what they wait for.
* **Signals & alerts** — what the module watches and what it has seen so far, and its seven alert rules with what each waits for.
* **Scorecard** — the six parts and their weights, how readings become a score, what each level allows, the bands, the goals, how high the score can go at each stage, the warning signs, the fixed settings and who changes them, and when it runs.
* **Inputs** — every reading behind the six parts, the module it comes from and what it reads today: *Read*, *Partly*, *Not yet* or *Later*. Then the daily log, empty until the first score.
* **Setup** — the module's questions, the answer Beacon reads from your billing, the question it shares with Segments, and the company questions it uses.
## What it needs
Forecast confidence reads no tool directly. Every reading arrives through another Beacon module; these are the tools behind them.
| Tool | | What it adds | Checked today |
| - | - | - | - |
| **Billing** (Stripe) | Must be connected | Beacon runs no module without billing. Here, through Data integrity, Churn risk and Customer revenue forecast: revenue, subscriptions and renewal dates | Yes |
| **CRM** (HubSpot) | Needed to start | Through Data integrity, Pipeline velocity, Deal likelihood and Deal health: the pipeline | Yes — the page reads Not measured yet without it |
| **Product analytics** (PostHog) | Adds detail | Through Usage intelligence: which customers' use is falling | Yes |
| **Accounting** | Adds detail | Billing checked against the books. Until it is connected, financial integrity counts a neutral 50 | Yes — named as a step you can take |
| **Marketing tool** | Later | Buying intent for intent strength | Yes — named on the part |
See [Connect your tools](/connect-your-tools) for how each connection is made.
## Reads from
| Module | What Forecast confidence uses it for |
| - | - |
| [**Data integrity**](/modules/data-integrity) | Records passing the morning checks, open data problems, tools delivered on time and unexpected field changes — read today. Its trust figure, 60% of data quality, is not calculated yet |
| [**Data model**](/modules/data-model) · [**Signals**](/modules/signals) | Signal readings in the last 30 days — read today. How ready the data is and how noisy the signals are — not calculated yet |
| **Pipeline velocity** | Its latest score and usual time to close — read today |
| [**Deal likelihood**](/modules/deal-likelihood) · **Deal health** | Open deals and their ARR — read today. Drift in deal chances and deals by health — not calculated yet |
| **Sales forecast** · [**Customer fit**](/modules/customer-fit) | How complete the fit data is — read today. How the pipeline is spread across stages — not calculated yet |
| [**Churn risk**](/modules/churn-risk) · [**Usage intelligence**](/modules/usage-intelligence) · **Customer lifecycle** | Subscriptions and how many carry a renewal date, customers whose use is falling or halved, and how many customers are placed in a stage — read today. Renewing revenue at high risk — not calculated yet |
| **Customer revenue forecast** · **Expansion readiness** | Net revenue retention, revenue and ARR from billing, Enterprise revenue, customers read and open expansion deals — read today. How sure the renewal forecast is, and who is ready to expand — not calculated yet |
| [**Segments**](/modules/segments) | Which segments get their own score — set in Segments, used once the score exists |
| **Customer value** | Whether customers' value is growing or wearing away — not read yet |
| **Marketing intent** · **Marketing forecast** | Buying interest and demand — later |
| **Revenue forecast** · **Cash flow** · **Margin** | Unusual revenue moves, payment delays and margin — later, with Finance |
## Which modules read it
| Module | What it uses Forecast confidence for |
| - | - |
| **Sales forecast** | Pipeline stability sets its range, and whether the monthly lock can be taken without a person |
| **Customer revenue forecast** | Renewal stability sets its range, and whether renewal forecasts are committed or held as drafts |
| **Revenue forecast** | The whole score: under 60 the company forecast is not published; at 40 to 59 it needs the account owner to go to the board |
| [**Churn risk**](/modules/churn-risk) · **Expansion readiness** · **Deal alerts** | Whether their alerts go out by themselves or as drafts |
| [**Customer fit**](/modules/customer-fit) · [**Signals**](/modules/signals) | A warning on fit verdicts and signal alerts when confidence is low |
| **Scenarios** · **Customer value** | Confidence ranges, and a scenario request when the score falls fast |
Every one of these reads the score or a part score, which are not calculated, so none receives anything from this module yet. The **Modules** page in The Brain shows which modules are running for you.
## Alerts
Seven alert rules are described. None is about a single deal or customer — those come from the modules that read them. These are about whether the forecasts can be trusted.
| Alert | When it fires | Goes to |
| - | - | - |
| **Confidence fell 5 points or more in a day** | The score falls 5 points or more within 24 hours. Urgent if it changes what Beacon may do by itself | RevOps lead, finance lead and CRO — Slack |
| **What Beacon may do by itself changed** | The level moves up or down. Urgent for a drop to suggestions only or watches only | CRO, CFO and RevOps lead — Slack |
| **One part under 40** | Any part falls under 40, whatever the score | The part's owner and the RevOps lead — Slack |
| **Under 60 for more than two days** | The score stays under 60 for more than 48 hours. Urgent | Account owner, CRO, CFO and RevOps lead — Slack and email |
| **Confidence recovered** | The score reaches a higher level again and holds it for 4 hours | RevOps lead — Slack |
| **A part under its review line** | Data quality under 70, or pipeline, renewal or financial integrity under 65, starts a review of that part | The part's leader — a report |
| **Big fall — scenarios for Finance** | The score falls 10 points or more in a day, or to suggestions only or below. Board-pack preparation pauses until the scenarios are read | CFO, CRO and account owner |
**No alert is sent yet.** Every one waits for the score or the part scores.
## Setup questions
* **Who owns forecast confidence, and who is told?** The owner — usually the CFO — is responsible for the score, the levels and the statement to the board; the account owner approves level changes; the RevOps lead watches the parts daily. Picked from your Beacon users. Not available on the page yet.
* **In a usual quarter, are renewals more than a quarter of your yearly revenue?** If yes, renewal stability weighs a little more. Answers: yes; no; not sure — check once renewal dates are known.
* **How often does a forecast go to your board?** Each time, Beacon attaches the score, the six parts and a plain statement of how far the forecast can be trusted. Answers: monthly; quarterly; not yet.
The last two are saved from the Setup tab. Today's readings do not depend on them; they are used once the score is worked out.
**Not asked — read from your data:** whether Enterprise is more than 40% of your revenue, from billing. **Asked once, in Segments:** which segments get their own score. **Asked once, in Company DNA:** how you segment your customers. The weights, the levels and the warning-sign thresholds are fixed and not asked.
## What is not calculated yet
* **Forecast confidence** — the score from 0 to 100 and its band.
* **The score for each of the six parts.**
* **What Beacon may do by itself** — until there is a score, a person confirms every action on a forecast.
* **The score over time**, the weekly history and **the confidence statement for the board**.
* **Alerts** — none is sent yet.
* **Data integrity's trust figure**, and the **Churn risk**, **Deal health** and **Deal likelihood** scores this module waits for.
## Related
The ten module families and which modules are available today.
The score from 0 to 100, its six parts, the bands and what it governs.
The morning checks behind data quality — the part every forecast depends on.
How Beacon says how much of a figure it can see, and how sure it is.
Subscriptions, renewal dates and the risk score renewal stability waits for.
Your open deals, and the chances pipeline stability will read.
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