What it is
churn_risk is a 0-100 measure of how likely an account is to churn, where a higher number means greater risk. It is measured from signals already present in your connected systems. Alongside it Beacon produces a 12-month and a 24-month retention probability, a churn driver category, and, for accounts at 70 and above, an estimate of days to likely churn bounded between 14 and 180 days.
How it is calculated
Measured. Five inputs are scored and combined at fixed weights.
One rule overrides the weighted total: where any single input scores 90 or above, the score is set to at least 70. The weighting varies with the account’s lifecycle stage; the scoring logic does not.
70 is the threshold at which an account is flagged in renewal forecasting. The scale and these thresholds are fixed and do not vary by company or segment.
Where it comes from
Where an input is unavailable, Beacon substitutes the average for the account’s segment on that input and labels the score low-confidence. The score continues to be produced rather than withheld, and the label travels with it. Where a segment holds fewer than 50 accounts or fewer than 12 months of history, the retention probability is calculated from a cross-segment baseline and labelled as such.
How fresh it is
Recalculated daily on triggering events, and in full on the first business day of each month. That monthly recalculation seals the month-end distribution. The input weights and the retention-probability calculation are re-fitted and sealed quarterly, 10 business days after quarter end. Triggering events are a usage drop of 25% or more week over week, a support escalation, a missed payment, a material satisfaction change, a contract amendment, and a 10-point move in the account’s economics.Currency and rounding
The score has no unit. The revenue-at-risk figure calculated alongside it is stated in your single reporting currency, and every read of a financial value is recorded in the access log.What changes it
Any triggering event above, or any single input moving 10 points. A single input crossing 90 raises the score to at least 70 on its own. A change in the account’s lifecycle stage changes which weighting applies. Between quarters the weights are fixed; the quarterly re-fit changes them for the periods that follow.What it is not
- Not a forecast produced by a learned model. The score is calculated from the inputs above by a fixed formula, and the same inputs return the same score.
- Not the retention probability. That is a separate value derived from the score, the segment, and the account’s position in its lifecycle.
- Not the renewal decision. The score informs which action is offered; the decision follows from the account’s economics.
- Not expansion readiness. A high churn risk removes an account from expansion consideration regardless of its expansion signal.
- Not non-renewal. A contract ending without renewal is recorded separately from churn.