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What it is

expansion_readiness is a 0-100 measure of how ready an account is to expand, where a higher number means greater readiness. It is measured from signals already present in your connected systems. Alongside it Beacon produces an expansion probability at 12 and 18 months, a projected expansion amount, a time-to-expansion estimate with a confidence label, and the dominant expansion driver.

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How it is calculated

Measured. Five inputs are scored and combined at fixed weights. One rule overrides the weighted total: where churn_risk is 70 or above, expansion readiness is suppressed and the account is not treated as a candidate. That gate cannot be relaxed below 65. The scale and the scoring logic are fixed. The threshold at which an account is routed as an expansion candidate moves with your growth plan — 65 at the balanced default, 75 under the most conservative plan, 55 under the most aggressive. A score is published only where at least three of the five inputs are available at a confidence of 70 or above. Below that it is labelled insufficient coverage and is not routed for action.

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Where it comes from

An account produces a score once it has 90 days of post-sale history and product usage at a confidence of 70 or above, or once it is within 270 days of renewal with contract structure fully populated. Before that, only a segment-level expansion rate exists. Where a connection goes stale, the confidence label drops rather than a stale score being published.

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How fresh it is

Recalculated daily on triggering events, and in full on the first business day of each month. That monthly recalculation seals the month’s distribution and the per-account figures handed to renewal forecasting. Triggering events are a usage jump, a new team activating, a feature-adoption threshold being crossed, a contract amendment, a change in seat capacity, renewal proximity at 90, 180 or 270 days, and churn risk crossing its gate. The input weights and the probability calibration are re-fitted and sealed quarterly, once at least 20 closed expansion events exist for the segment.

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Currency and rounding

The score has no unit. The projected expansion amount calculated alongside it is stated in your single reporting currency, and every read of a financial value is recorded in the access log.

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What changes it

Movement in any of the five inputs above. Churn risk reaching 70 suppresses the score outright until it returns below that level, and persistent late payment suppresses it until the arrears are resolved. A change of segment triggers a recalculation and a confidence review, because the baseline the score is measured against has moved. Between quarters the weights are fixed; the quarterly re-fit changes them for the periods that follow. A rising cost_to_serve does not change the score — it changes whether the expansion is worth offering, which is a separate decision.

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What it is not

  • Not churn risk inverted. The two read different inputs and answer different questions. A high churn risk suppresses expansion readiness; a low churn risk does not raise it.
  • Not the projected expansion amount. That is a separate value, stated in currency, produced alongside the score rather than derived from it.
  • Not an expansion forecast. The company-level forecast reads the per-account probability as one input among several.
  • Not lifecycle_stage. Stage is where the account has reached after the sale; readiness is a continuously recalculated measure that does not sit in the sequence of stages.
  • Not an approval to expand. Readiness identifies a candidate. Whether the expansion is economically worth doing is decided separately, against the account’s own economics.