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Beacon measures its own confidence at three levels, and they answer different questions. A figure is never published as though every input behind it were equally sound.
This page describes a designed model, not shipped behaviour. The measures and thresholds below are fixed in Beacon’s model; their published names and door availability are being authored into the field catalogue and may change before they are callable.

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Definition

The three compound. A record’s confidence rolls into its system’s; the system’s is the largest single input to the forecast’s.

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How it behaves

Low confidence is disclosed, never hidden. A figure computed from thin data is labelled, and the label travels with the figure on every door. It is not quietly downgraded and it is not silently withheld. Below a floor, a figure is withheld rather than published. A record under 60 is treated as data-absent — not estimated, not carried forward, and the floor is not overridable. A connected system under 60 suspends every prompt and alert Beacon would otherwise send, company-wide, while the underlying figures keep computing. Confidence governs what Beacon may do on its own. Forecast confidence sets the autonomy ceiling directly: at 80 and above Beacon’s agents may act within their grants; between 60 and 79 they draft and wait; between 40 and 59 they recommend only; below 40 they observe and do nothing. That last step is unconditional and cannot be overridden by any instruction or urgency. A missing input lowers coverage, not the score. A dimension whose source is not connected contributes a neutral score rather than a zero, and the forecast declares that its coverage is partial. A gap is stated, never scored as though it were bad news. A sharp drop is treated as an event. Five points inside a day opens an anomaly review rather than passing unremarked.

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Constraints

  • Confidence is not accuracy. It measures how much of the required data is present, current, internally consistent and reconciled across systems — not whether the answer turns out to be right.
  • Two of the three are computed by fixed formula. Record and system confidence run in the calculation layer, from your data, with no model involved. Forecast confidence is the one number Beacon reasons rather than calculates — and it governs how much weight a forecast carries; it never overwrites a figure, and it cannot change a sealed one.
  • It is not a setting. No configuration raises a confidence score, and no plan tier changes a floor.
  • It is not a data-quality report. Beacon publishes these to govern its own behaviour. Fixing what they surface happens in your systems.

Data integrity

The five dimensions behind a record’s confidence, and the thresholds.

Forecast confidence

The six dimensions behind a forecast’s confidence, and the autonomy ladder.

How current a number is

The two timestamps on every figure.