What it is
Measured. The figures on the Deal likelihood page are counts and sums over your open deals, worked out every morning by fixed, written rules. Nothing on the page today is Beacon’s estimate: where a chance of closing is applied, it is the percentage your CRM sets for the deal’s stage, and the page says so. The same deals and the same stage settings always give the same figures. This article is the one the page’s how it is calculated link opens. It sets out each rule in turn. Beacon’s own likelihood for each deal is a published value with its own definition — deal likelihood score — and it is not calculated yet.Which deals count
A deal is open when its current stage is on a pipeline Beacon holds and your CRM does not mark that stage as closed. Won and lost deals are not open and are left out of every figure. A deal whose current stage Beacon cannot find among your pipeline’s stages is not written. It is counted by name in the morning run’s log, never placed in a guessed stage. For each open deal the morning run notes which deal it is, its stage, its customer’s name, the customer’s size group (such as Enterprise, Mid-market or Small business, or Unsegmented when the customer has none) and the customer’s fit band once Customer fit gives one.The groups
Every open deal counts in several groups at once:
The three close windows add up as they go: a deal due in 20 days is in all three. A deal with no close date in your CRM is in none of them.
The days to close are the whole days from the morning of the run to the close date in your CRM, counted in UTC. They turn negative once the date has passed.
Your CRM’s stage percentages
Your CRM lets you set a percentage on each pipeline stage — for example Discovery 10%, Evaluation 30%, Proposal 60%, Contract sent 85%. Beacon reads each stage’s percentage from your pipeline settings every day. A percentage outside 0–100% is refused, never rounded into range, and that stage is treated as having none. These percentages are your setting, not Beacon’s likelihood. The page always words them as your CRM says. They give every deal at a stage the same chance, whatever its size, customer or pace — the very thing Beacon’s own likelihood is built to replace. Beacon never treats them as its own likelihood.Likely ARR at your CRM’s stage percentage
For each open deal:- ARR is the deal’s amount in your CRM, read as yearly recurring revenue, in your reporting currency.
- Likely ARR is the deal’s ARR times your CRM’s percentage for its stage. A deal on a stage with no percentage has no likely ARR.
Size against the usual
For each group, the morning run finds the middle open-deal ARR — the median of the ARR values its deals carry. With an even number of deals, it is the average of the two in the middle. Deals with no amount are left out. Each deal’s size against the usual is its ARR divided by the middle ARR of its size group, rounded to two decimals: 1.0× is the usual size, 2.0× twice it. The median is the one value the morning run works out itself, because the data store has no median function; it is declared, versioned and reproducible like every other rule.Deals that close or move
When a deal is won or lost, or a group no longer applies, its record is marked as no longer current and taken out of every group. It is kept, never deleted, so the totals count only today’s open deals while yesterday’s can still be reproduced.Not yet calculated
How the following are worked out is not yet written down, or waits for data Beacon does not read yet, so the page says Not yet calculated rather than showing a number:- Each deal’s own likelihood — how each of its five parts (customer fit, momentum, engagement, deal economics, buying intent) turns what Beacon reads into a score from 0 to 100 is not written down; each stage’s range needs more of your deals to have closed; and contacts and activity on deals are not read from your CRM, so engagement has nothing to read.
- How sure Beacon is, the expected close date and the expected contract, which come with the likelihood.
- Likely pipeline value and expected to close on Beacon’s side, the risk tiers, and every alert that needs the likelihood.
- Time against the usual, which waits for Pipeline velocity’s usual times per segment and stage.
- The deal-economics check, which waits for margins from Finance and the cost to win a customer from Marketing.
Where it comes from
How fresh it is
Once a day, straight after the morning load from your CRM, which starts at 05:00 UTC. The page shows when it last ran. A deal moved in your CRM during the day shows its new stage, amount or close date after the next morning’s run. Every figure carries the run it came from, the version of the rules it was worked out under, and what was read — so it can be reproduced from the same inputs.Currency and rounding
ARR and likely ARR are stated in your single reporting currency. Your CRM’s percentages are shown as whole percents. Size against the usual is a ratio with no currency, to two decimals.What it is not
- Not Beacon’s likelihood. Every chance on the page today is your CRM’s stage percentage. The deal likelihood score is Beacon’s own, and it is not calculated yet.
- Not a forecast. Likely ARR at your CRM’s percentage is a weighting your CRM already implies. The Sales forecast is built on Beacon’s likelihood, not on this.
- Not deal health. That asks whether a deal becomes a good customer if it closes; this asks whether it closes.
- Not a change to your CRM. Beacon reads your deals and pipeline settings and writes nothing back.