Deal likelihood — what is the real chance each open deal closes?

Deal likelihood answers one question: What is the real chance each open deal closes — by when, and on what terms? Every morning it lists your open deals from your CRM, sorts them by segment, stage and close date, and shows what your pipeline is worth at your CRM’s own stage percentages. It belongs to the Sales family — see Modules.

This page describes the module as it runs today. The open deals, their groups and the figures at your CRM’s stage percentages are live. Beacon’s own likelihood for each deal — and everything built on it: how sure Beacon is, the expected close date, the expected contract, the risk tiers and the alerts — is designed and not calculated yet. How each of its five parts turns what Beacon reads into a score is not yet written down. Deal likelihood — how it is calculated sets out every rule the live figures follow.

What it does

Most CRMs give every deal at a stage the same chance of closing — every Proposal deal 60%, every Contract sent deal 85% — whatever its size, its customer or how fast it is moving. Deal likelihood is built to give each open deal its own chance instead, from five things about the deal, and to add those chances up into what is really likely to close. Today it does the part that needs no likelihood. Once a day, after your CRM has synced, it:

Lists every open deal — a deal whose stage your CRM does not mark as closed — with its stage, its customer, the customer’s size group and its close date in your CRM.
Sorts the open deals into groups: all of them, each size group, each stage, and those your CRM expects to close within the next 30, 60 and 90 days, or whose close date has already passed.
Shows what your CRM’s stage percentages say each group is likely to bring in: each deal’s yearly value times the percentage your CRM sets for its stage.
Compares each deal’s size with the usual — the middle open deal in its size group.

The percentages are your CRM’s own setting, read from your pipeline settings. Beacon shows them as your CRM says and never uses them as its own likelihood. Beacon never writes into your CRM.

What it produces

Its headline is three figures. None is calculated yet.

KPI	What it measures	Today
Deal likelihood	Each open deal’s own chance of closing won, from 0 to 100%, always shown with how sure Beacon is of it	Not calculated yet — how each of its five parts is scored is not written down
Likely pipeline value	Each open deal’s yearly value times its own likelihood, added up by segment, customer fit, deal economics and stage — against the same figure at your CRM’s stage percentages	Not calculated yet. Your CRM’s version is produced daily (below)
Expected to close · 30, 60 and 90 days	The likely value of open deals expected to close within the next 30, 60 and 90 days, with a range that narrows as Beacon grows surer — the figure the Sales forecast and Finance use	Not calculated yet. Your CRM’s version is produced daily (below)

The first name links to its definition, which also says how the Data API and MCP will carry it — neither serves it yet. The other two get their definitions when they are calculated. Behind them it also produces:

What	What it tells you	Today
Your open deals	Every open deal with its stage, customer, size group, close date in your CRM and yearly value	Produced daily
Likely pipeline value at your CRM’s stage percentages	The same headline figure worked out with your CRM’s fixed percentage per stage — for all deals, each size group and each stage	Produced daily
Expected to close at your CRM’s stage percentages	The likely value of deals your CRM expects to close within the next 30, 60 and 90 days, counted by the close date in your CRM	Produced daily
Past the close date	Open deals whose close date in your CRM has passed, and their yearly value	Produced daily
Size against the usual	Each deal’s yearly value against the middle open deal in its size group (1.0× is the usual size)	Produced daily
Each deal’s likelihood, how sure Beacon is, expected close and expected contract	The deal’s own chance, its range, when it is likely to close and on what terms	Not calculated yet
Risk tiers	High confidence, medium, low, stalled, at risk, or not enough data	Not calculated yet
Time against the usual	Each deal’s days in its stage against the usual time for its segment and stage	Waits for Pipeline velocity’s usual times, which are not served yet
Contacts and engagement	Who is involved on each deal and whether the buyer replies	Not read from your CRM yet
Deal economics	Whether each deal meets Finance’s guardrails as priced	Waits for margins from Finance and the cost to win a customer from Marketing
Win rate and time to close by customer fit	Whether the fit bands predict which deals are won	Waits for the Customer fit score
How accurate it has been	The average gap between the likelihood and what happened, on deals that closed	Waits for scored deals to close
Alerts	Eight rules — a deal stalling, moved back with no reason, below a Finance guardrail, a strong deal to move faster, a buyer gone quiet, past its expected close, too little data, and a disagreement with another module	Built, none sent

How the likelihood will be worked out

The figures produced today are counts and sums over your open deals, worked out by fixed, written rules — the same deals always give the same figures. The full rules are in Deal likelihood — how it is calculated. Beacon’s own likelihood — designed, not calculated. Each open deal is scored on five parts, each from 0 to 100 against deals in the same segment, then weighted. The weights are fixed.

Part	Weight	What it will measure
Customer fit	28%	How well the buying company fits your best customers — its fit tier, how deals like it usually go in its segment, and how long customers like it stay
Momentum	25%	How the deal is moving: days in its stage against the usual for its segment, whether it is slowing, and the risk it slips
Engagement	22%	The relationship: how many people are involved, whether the buyer replies and starts contact, and days since the buyer last reached out
Deal economics	15%	Whether the deal is worth winning as structured: size against the segment’s usual, discount, term, lifetime value against the cost to win it
Buying intent	10%	How actively the buyer is shopping: where the deal came from, recent research and visits, and outside intent data

From parts to a likelihood, in four steps:

Five parts, weighted. A strong customer fit adds at most 8 points; a weak fit takes off at most 12.
Held inside the stage’s range. Each stage has a lowest and highest likelihood per segment, set from your own won and lost deals — no Discovery deal at 70%, no Contract sent deal at 5%.
Reduced when data is weak. Data confidence under 80 brings the likelihood down with it. Under 60, no likelihood is given at all.
Brought down past the close date. Once a deal is past its expected close, it loses 2 points a week. This cannot be switched off — the fix is a new close date.

How sure Beacon is is shown with every likelihood. Under 40, a wide range rather than a number; 40 to 69, a narrower range; 70 and above, a single figure. Risk tiers. High confidence — a likelihood of 65% or more with confidence 70+. Low — under 40%, or confidence under 40. Medium — neither. Stalled — over 1.5 times the usual time in its stage. At risk — the buyer has gone quiet, or the deal moved back a stage with no reason given. Not enough data — data confidence under 60. Deal economics. Finance’s standard guardrails are a gross margin of 65%, a lifetime margin of $15,000, lifetime value at least 3 times the cost to win the customer, and a return of 2 times that cost. A deal below a guardrail cannot reach Proposal until it is restructured or Finance signs off an exception. Only Finance changes them. Who may change what. Weight changes of up to 3 points a week happen by themselves, from the weekly accuracy check. Larger weight changes, the stage ranges, the fit limits and the alert thresholds need your sales leader, at most once a month. None of this is calculated today, because how each part turns what Beacon reads into a score from 0 to 100 is not yet written down, too few of your deals have closed to set each stage’s range, and contacts and activity on deals are not read from your CRM yet. Until all three are in place, the page shows your CRM’s side and says Not yet calculated for Beacon’s.

What you see on its page

In Beacon, open Go-to-Market under Growth and choose Deal likelihood. The banner shows the likely value of your open pipeline by segment at your CRM’s stage percentages, how many open deals that covers, and that Beacon’s likelihood is not yet calculated. The page has six tabs:

Overview — likely pipeline value at your CRM’s stage percentages by segment or by stage (the customer-fit and deal-economics views say what they wait for); expected to close within 30, 60 and 90 days by your CRM’s close dates; what can be read today on the open deals — past the close date, with time against the usual, contacts and deal economics marked as not read yet; the five parts; and what the module reads, feeds and where it shows up.
Dashboard — the module’s seven charts: likely pipeline value, expected to close, pipeline by deal economics, customer fit × deal economics, win rate and time to close by customer fit, deals by risk tier, and how accurate it has been. The first two show your CRM’s side; the others say what they wait for.
Signals & alerts — what the module watches, its eight alert rules and what each waits for, and that none is sending.
Scorecard — the five parts and their fixed weights, the steps from parts to a likelihood, how sure Beacon is, the risk tiers, Finance’s guardrails and the rules.
Deals — every open deal, filterable by segment and stage, with your CRM’s percentage, Beacon’s likelihood (blank until calculated), size against the usual, the close date in your CRM, ARR and Likely ARR at your CRM’s percentage. Select a deal to see how its likelihood will be built.
Setup — the module’s five questions, with the answers in use. Three are saved from this tab.

The page reads Not measured yet until your CRM is connected, Coming until the first morning run has written, and Running with gaps once it has. It does not read Live yet, because Beacon’s likelihood is not calculated.

What it needs

Tool		What it adds	Checked today
CRM (HubSpot)	Needed to start	Your deals, their stages and close dates, the companies behind them, and each stage’s percentage from your pipeline settings	Yes
CRM contacts and activity	Adds the engagement part	Who is involved on each deal, meetings, emails and calls	Not read yet
Billing (Stripe)	Must be connected	Beacon runs no module without billing. Deal likelihood reads nothing from it today	Yes
Accounting and marketing data	Add detail, later	Margins for the deal-economics check; the cost to win a customer and buying intent	Not yet

See Connect your tools for how each connection is made.

Reads from

Module	What Deal likelihood uses it for
Data model	Your deals, companies, stages and stage history in one shape — read today
Data integrity	How reliable each deal’s record is. Under 60, no likelihood; 60 to 79, a reduced one with a warning — not read yet
Segments	Each deal is judged against deals in its own segment. Today the page groups by the customer’s size group
Customer fit	The fit tier: a strong fit adds up to 8 points, a weak fit takes off up to 12 — not read yet, because the fit score is not calculated
Signals	Pace, engagement and intent signals on each deal — not read yet
Segment revenue paths	The starting chance and usual close window for each segment, before your own results build up — not read yet
Pipeline velocity	The usual time per segment and stage — not served yet
Deal health	A cross-check on engagement. Where the two disagree by 15 points, Deal health decides — not read yet
Sales forecast · Forecast confidence	The expected contract terms kept with each deal, and how stable the pipeline is — not read yet
Churn risk · Lifecycle economics · Marketing · Margin	How long customers like this stay and what they are worth, buying intent and the cost to win, and gross margin — later

Which modules read it

Module	What it uses Deal likelihood for
Sales forecast	Each deal’s likelihood, expected close and expected contract — the sales forecast is built on them
Revenue forecast	Through the Sales forecast: new business in the company forecast
Customer fit	Win rate and time to close by fit tier — proof that fit predicts good deals
Signals	Which signals came before wins and losses, per segment
Segment revenue paths	Each deal’s own chance and timing in place of its segment’s
Customer value	The expected lifetime value of deals still in the pipeline
Forecast confidence	How much likelihoods move week to week
Deal health · Pipeline velocity · Contract intelligence	Engagement readings, pace patterns and the expected contract terms
Deal health · Sales lifecycle intelligence	The list of open deals, with each deal’s stage and segment — read today, so the three modules never disagree about which deals are open

Apart from that list of open deals, all of these read the likelihood, which is not calculated, so none of them receives anything else from this module yet. The Modules page in The Brain shows which modules are running for you.

Alerts

Eight alert rules are built. Each deal gets one alert at a time.

Alert	When it fires	Goes to
Deal stalling	Over 1.5 times the usual time in its stage, and its likelihood down 5 points or more in 14 days, mostly from momentum. Urgent if the close date passes with no update	Deal owner and sales manager — HubSpot task and Slack
Moved back a stage, no reason given	A deal moves back to an earlier stage and no reason is logged	Deal owner, then the sales manager — HubSpot task
Deal economics below a guardrail	As structured, the deal falls below one of Finance’s guardrails. It cannot move to Proposal until restructured or Finance signs off an exception	Deal owner, sales manager and Finance lead — Slack and the Finance review queue
Strong deal — move faster	Before Proposal, the likelihood passes 70% and Beacon is fairly sure of it (confidence 65+)	Deal owner — Slack
Buyer gone quiet	At Demo or later, the buyer has started no contact for over 21 days and engagement has dropped 10 points or more. After 14 more days with no reply, the deal is marked at risk	Deal owner — HubSpot task and Slack
Past its expected close	The expected close date has passed and the likelihood is still over 40%	Deal owner — HubSpot task
Too little data to give a likelihood	Data confidence under 60: no likelihood and no expected contract	Shown on the deal, for sales ops and the deal owner
Likelihood disagrees with another module	The likelihood and Deal health, the Sales forecast, Pipeline velocity or Sales lifecycle intelligence differ by 15 points or more. Automatic weight changes pause until it is settled	Sales manager and sales ops

No alert is sent yet. Four wait for the likelihood, one for activity from your CRM, one for margins, and two are not sending at all yet. Who gets the alerts is picked from your Beacon users in Setup.

Setup questions

Where should each stage’s range start? Recommended: from your CRM’s stage percentages, replaced as your own deals close. Other answers: wait for your own win rates; set them per segment yourself.
Are these Finance’s guardrails for deal economics? Gross margin 65%, lifetime margin $15,000, lifetime value 3 times the cost to win, return 2 times. Finance answers.
Do customers try your product before they talk to sales? If yes, Beacon proposes giving buying intent more weight — a proposal your sales leader approves with evidence from your closed deals, not a setting.
Where do your deals come from? Read from the deal source in HubSpot and lined up with Beacon’s channels for you to confirm. Waits until deal sources are read.
Who gets the alerts? The sales manager and the Finance lead, picked from your Beacon users. Deal owners get alerts on their own deals. Waits for your users.

The first three are saved from the Setup tab and used from the next morning run. How your deal stages line up with Beacon’s six is asked once, in Sales lifecycle intelligence; the starting usual time per stage and segment, in Pipeline velocity. How you segment your customers, whether you have a sales team and which growth plan you are on are asked once, in Company DNA.

What is not calculated yet

Each deal’s own likelihood, how sure Beacon is of it, its expected close and its expected contract.
Likely pipeline value and expected to close on Beacon’s side — your CRM’s side is shown instead.
Risk tiers, the deal-economics check, win rate by customer fit and accuracy.
Time against the usual and engagement — Pipeline velocity’s usual times are not served yet, and contacts and activity are not read from your CRM yet.
Alerts — none is sent yet.
Deal likelihood through the Data API and MCP — defined, not served yet.

Modules

The ten module families and which modules are available today.

How it is calculated

Every rule the live figures follow — open deals, groups, close windows, your CRM’s stage percentages and size against the usual.

Deal likelihood score

The per-deal likelihood, its five parts and the confidence shown beside it.

Deal health

If this deal closes, will it become a good customer?

Deal stage

Where a deal is in your pipeline — and why a later stage is not a higher chance.

Contract intelligence

The contract record every open deal gets, filled in as it moves.

​What it does

​What it produces

​How the likelihood will be worked out

​What you see on its page

​What it needs

​Reads from

​Which modules read it

​Alerts

​Setup questions

​What is not calculated yet

​Related