Segment revenue paths — where is each segment's revenue heading?

Segment revenue paths answers one question: Where is each segment’s revenue heading, and what should happen next with each customer? Today it shows how the average account in each of your segments has kept, lost and grown its revenue, month by month over its first three years, from your billing. Later it adds the path forward: where each customer is likely to go next, and the next step to take. It belongs to the Shared foundation — see Modules.

Today the module draws the history — how the average account in each confirmed segment has developed, from your billing. The path forward — each customer’s place on its segment’s path, the next step, how sure Beacon is, and when a customer strays — is not calculated yet. This page describes both, and says which is which.

What it does

The module has two halves. The history. Every account in a segment is lined up by its own first paying month, so month 1 is each account’s first month wherever it fell in your history. For every month of an account’s life, from 1 to 36, Beacon adds up what the segment’s accounts brought in, how many still pay, and how many pay more than they did at the start. The result is one line per segment: how the average account in that segment develops. Every point on it is billing history. The path forward. From that history, your deals and, later, the customer modules, Beacon will draw the usual path a customer in each segment takes — seven stages from first contact to expansion — place every prospect and customer on it, and suggest the next step. Added up, the paths give a revenue forecast built customer by customer. This half is not built yet. Comparing segments side by side — their health, and where to put money — is on Segments. This page follows the accounts inside each segment.

What it produces

Its headline is four figures. The first three describe how a segment performs, so they belong to Segments; this is the page that draws them.

KPI	What it measures	Today
Segment net revenue retention	The average account’s revenue in each month of its life against its first month, with accounts that left counting as zero. Above 1.0, the average account grows	Shown, worked out every night
Segment logo retention	The share of a segment’s accounts still paying in each month of their life	Shown, worked out every night
Segment expansion rate	The share of a segment’s accounts paying more than in their first month	Shown, worked out every night
Path confidence	How sure Beacon is of each customer’s path, from 0 to 100	Not calculated yet — its formula is waiting on a fix

The first three names link to their definitions, which also say how the Data API and MCP will carry them — neither serves them yet. Path confidence gets its definition when it is calculated. Behind them, the module produces:

What	What it tells you	Today
Logo churn by year	The share of a segment’s accounts lost in their first, second and third year, out of those still paying at the start of that year	Shown
Upgrades to new products	The share of a segment’s accounts paying for two or more of your products by month 12, 24 and 36	Shown. Which add-on accounts usually take first waits for your product names
Inside a segment	One segment’s average account, split by company size or by the year accounts started	Shown. Splits by customer fit and by how accounts bought wait for their sources
Accounts far from their segment	The accounts furthest above and below their segment’s average account at the same age	Not shown yet — the next step of this build
Where accounts are on the path	Every prospect and customer on the seven stages, today and in 30, 60 and 90 days	Not calculated yet
Expected revenue, next 12 months	New business, renewals and expansion, month by month, from every path added up	Not calculated yet
Customers off their path	How many customers are on track, worth a look, need action or need their path reset	Not calculated yet
Did the paths call it right?	For each stage, the time the paths expected against the time it really took	Not calculated yet
What the paths add up to	Revenue ahead, what your customers are worth, and how many paths are sure enough to act on	Not calculated yet

How the history is drawn

Rule	What happens
First month	The first month an account paid you anything is its month 1, wherever it fell in your history
Revenue in a month	The account’s recurring revenue across all its subscriptions that month
Closed months only	The current month is left out until it ends. An account counts at month 12 only once it has had twelve months
Accounts that leave	Count as zero revenue and as no longer paying. If one comes back, it counts again at what it pays
Paying more	Revenue in the month above the first month’s. More seats, a higher plan and new products all count
Two or more products	Paying for at least two different products that month. More seats of one product do not count
Which segment	The account’s current confirmed segment. Accounts in no confirmed segment are not counted, and an account that moves segment takes its whole history with it
Groups inside a segment	Company size splits the accounts that have an employee count into thirds. Year started splits by the year of the first month. A group with fewer than 5 accounts is not drawn

Because an account counts at a month only once it has reached it, a segment’s line covers fewer accounts the further along it goes, and a young segment’s line stops where its oldest accounts are. The figure across all your segments together is weighted by revenue. Every figure is a count or a sum worked out by fixed, written rules, so the same billing always gives the same lines. The path forward, and its two scores. Both have fixed weights; changing them takes your CEO and CFO together, and Beacon never changes its own.

Score	Parts and weights	Levels
Path confidence, 0–100	Segment history 35% · customer data 30% · how much of fit is known 20% · forecast confidence 15%	Under 40 not enough — ranges only · 40–59 low · 60–79 medium · 80 and over high. Beacon acts on its own only at 60 and over
Off-path score, 0–100	Behaviour 28% · customer quality 20% · lifecycle position 18% · deal motion 14% · money trend 12% · forecast confidence 8%	25 look at it · 50 act now · 75 reset the path

Neither is calculated yet. One part of path confidence is written on two different scales, so the score cannot be worked out exactly until that is fixed; and how each kind of change in the off-path score is measured is not settled. Until then every figure on the page carries its phase instead.

Phase	What it needs	What Beacon does
1 · Set up	Confirmed segments and company details	Advice only
2 · Deal path	The sales modules and 20 closed deals in a segment	Suggests steps
3 · Whole customer path	The customer and marketing modules	Acts on its own, and you can override
4 · Full forecast	The finance modules	All paths added up for your revenue forecast

Every company is at phase 1 today.

What you see on its page

In Beacon, open The Brain and choose Segment revenue paths. Once your segments are confirmed and the first nightly run has drawn them, the banner shows the average account after three years — or after as many months as your history has — as a multiple of its first month, with your strongest and weakest segment. The page has six tabs:

Overview — the lead chart, one line per segment from month 1 to month 36, as an index or in dollars; what the module reads and feeds; where it shows up; and when it last ran.
Dashboard — two views. How accounts develop: logo retention, logo churn by year, expansion rate, upgrades to new products, inside a segment, and accounts far from their segment. Where accounts are now: the seven-stage path, expected revenue, customers off their path, whether the paths called it right, and what they add up to — all waiting for the path forward.
Signals & alerts — what the module watches and its five alert rules. None is sending.
Scorecard — the two scores’ weights and levels, the phases, and the rules. Both scores read Not yet calculated.
Paths — each segment with its customers and its average account at month 36. Select a segment to see its detail. Days to sign, the chance a deal signs and new revenue read Next, and the Accounts view waits for the deal part of the path.
Setup — the four Segment revenue paths questions, with their recommended answers.

The page reads Not measured yet until billing is connected and at least one segment is confirmed, Coming until the first nightly run has drawn your confirmed segments, and Running with gaps once the history is drawn. It does not read Live yet, because the path forward is not built.

What it needs

What		What it adds
Billing (Stripe)	Needed to start	Every account’s revenue, month by month — the whole history
Confirmed segments	Needed to start	Each line is a segment your segment approver has confirmed on Segments
CRM (HubSpot)	Adds detail, later	The deal part of the path. A segment needs 20 closed deals before its path rests on its own history
Customer and marketing modules	Adds detail, later	Onboarding, renewal and expansion on the path
Finance modules	Adds detail, later	The full 12- and 24-month forecast

Segment revenue paths read no tool directly — your billing and CRM reach them through Beacon’s own records and the other modules. See Connect your tools for how each connection is made.

Reads from

Module	What Segment revenue paths uses it for
Segments	Your confirmed segments and the customers in each — every line is drawn on one
Customer matching	Each customer once, so one account’s revenue is never counted twice
Data model	Each customer’s billing history and company size
Signals, Customer fit, Data integrity, Forecast confidence	The path forward and its two scores. Not read yet
The sales, customer and finance modules	The later parts of the path, as each one starts running. Not read yet

Which modules read it

Module	What it uses Segment revenue paths for
Revenue forecast	All paths added up — a forecast built customer by customer, to check your forecast against
Segments	Each customer’s path on the segment comparison, and every finished path as the segment’s history
Customer fit	What a customer is likely to be worth, and how well placements worked
Customer value	Each customer’s value at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months
Deal likelihood	A second view of each deal’s chance. Gaps over 15 points go to your RevOps lead
Churn risk and Signals	An early sign that a customer is leaving its path
Every module	Finished paths are the starting estimate a module uses before it has its own history

All of these read the path forward, which is not calculated yet, so none of them receives anything from this module today. The Modules page in The Brain shows which modules are running for you.

Alerts

Alert	When it fires	Goes to
Customer drifting off its path	The off-path score reaches 25 (look at it) or 50 (act now)	Account owner and the sales or customer success lead, in Slack
Early churn warning	The path shows a 40% or higher chance the customer leaves within 60 days — urgent at 60%. Fires before Churn risk’s own alert	Customer success owner and lead, in Slack
Expansion window opening	A 60% or higher chance the customer expands within 45 days	Customer success owner, in Beacon
New prospect on a path	A new company in your CRM is placed in a segment and given a path, within 24 hours	Sales rep and sales owner, in Beacon
Path needs resetting	The off-path score reaches 75 — the customer no longer follows its segment’s path	RevOps lead, account owner and your data owner, in Slack

Two cross-checks sit beside them: when a path and Deal likelihood disagree on a deal by more than 15 points, your RevOps lead is told; when all paths added up are more than 8% away from your revenue forecast, Finance is told. No alert is sent yet. Every alert reads the path forward or the off-path score, and neither exists yet.

Setup questions

Who owns your revenue paths? Your CEO and CFO own them together and both sign any change to the weights or levels; your RevOps lead resets paths.
Above what monthly revenue does moving a customer between segments need a person? Recommended: $5k a month.
Which customers count as your largest? Recommended: your top 20% by recurring revenue. Resetting the path of one of them needs its account owner’s approval.
How much should Beacon do on its own at first? Recommended: suggest steps, and your team acts.

The Setup tab shows the questions with their recommended answers; answers cannot be saved yet. The history needs none of them — they govern what the path forward may do. How you segment your customers and who owns your data are asked once, in Company DNA, and used here too.

What is not calculated yet

The path forward — each segment’s seven-stage path, each customer’s place on it, and the next step.
Path confidence and the off-path score.
Expected revenue for the next 12 months, and what the paths add up to.
Accounts far from their segment.
Which add-on accounts usually take first, which waits for your product names.
Splits by customer fit and by how accounts bought.
Saving the setup answers.
The path panel on your HubSpot deal and company records.
Alerts — none is sent yet.
The three history figures through the Data API and MCP — defined, not served yet.

Modules

The ten module families and which modules are available today.

Segments

How your segments are formed and confirmed — every line here is drawn on one.

Segment net revenue retention

The lead figure: how the average account’s revenue develops by month of its life.

Segment object

Every value Beacon publishes about a segment, and which doors carry it.

Cohort net revenue retention

The same idea for a group of accounts that started together.

Boundaries

What Beacon reads, what it never changes, and what it does not decide.

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Modules

Lifecycles

Finance

Trust

Reference

Segment revenue paths — where is each segment's revenue heading?

What it does

What it produces

How the history is drawn

What you see on its page

What it needs

Reads from

Which modules read it

Alerts

Setup questions

What is not calculated yet

Modules

Segments

Segment net revenue retention

Segment object

Cohort net revenue retention

Boundaries

​What it does

​What it produces

​How the history is drawn

​What you see on its page

​What it needs

​Reads from

​Which modules read it

​Alerts

​Setup questions

​What is not calculated yet

​Related

Modules

Segments

Segment net revenue retention

Segment object

Cohort net revenue retention

Boundaries

What it does

What it produces

How the history is drawn

What you see on its page

What it needs

Reads from

Which modules read it

Alerts

Setup questions

What is not calculated yet

Related